Signing another non-aggression pact.

History repeats itself and in no department of it is this more pronounced than political history. Over time, we had a succession of political monsters that were almost perfect clones of one another: Genghis Khan, Attila the Hun, Adolf Hitler...or political processes that are, in crucial respects, replicas in actualities or reverse. On 23rd August, 1939, with the 2nd Word War imminent in Europe, the Soviet dictator, Josef Stalin, was compelled to sign a non-aggression pact with another dictator, the rampaging German Nazi monster, Adolf Hitler.  Both sides pledged to refrain from attacking each other, sought cooperation in neutralizing common enemies and so on. But the so-called Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact, named after the two countries' foreign ministers was actually no more than mere paper, a document Hitler would tear to shreds barely two years later by invading Soviet positions in eastern Poland.
Fast forward to 2018, almost 79 years later, and one could see another non-aggression pact taking shape again between the two countries. In the reverse. A lot have changed, certainly. The Soviet Union now exists as a rump called Russia and communism that used to be the foundation of the state is now gone. Dictatorship now exists in other forms, propped up by an imperfect democracy but a democracy nevertheless. Germany had lost East Prussia, a third of its territory, is now a pure democracy, if any such thing exists, and now has a woman calling the shots in Berlin. The country is now an economic power but it now relies practically on the United States of America to protect her. Of recent, the German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, has been setting her sights on the East, on erstwhile bitter foe, Russia, strangely on a country the US has sworn to protect her from. It is just like extricating oneself from a very gentle handshake and then delving into the suffocating embrace of a bear hug. Strange, yet it is a reassessment that is very inevitable. The so-called handshake across the Atlantic has been gradually turning into a fist lock. Physically, President Trump's hands might be small but the grip they enforce could be really humiliating. And in no way is this demonstrated more than the recent peremptory cancellation of the Iran deal, an agreement Merkel and the European powers of Britain and France helped put on the table at great pains. Talk about making allies look small, ineffectual and pathetic! These three countries have had their diplomatic reputation torn to shreds and the outrage from their own nationals and economic concerns have been loud, reverberating. Merkel, a professor of physics, must have been miffed even further that the chap  making them look so inconsequential is one who could not really tell the difference between HIV and HPV, two classes of organisms so dissimilar. And so appalling was the remission that Bill Gates, the Microsoft founder, had to explain it to him twice, according to the billionaire's testimony. There are very audible grumblings in Europe by folks there that they cannot continue to be treated like vassals and Merkel must have been listening to the discontent of her own subjects.
Merkel knows that her Achilles' heels, and that of Europe, is ironically, an economic power that is hugely entwined with that of the United States. Even long before these European leaders had started trying to voice some determination, restating their resolve to shore up the Iran deal, many of their companies and big businesses such as the French energy giant, Total, were already pulling out of Iran. Deweaning Europe of the alliance with the US is going to be tough,  very tough, long and laborious but as a scientist, Merkel very much knows it is never too late taking a first step, no matter how small it is. She knows too that the Transatlantic Alliance is one that needs reappraisal. The world is not what it used to be. There is a new military power in the shape of China which also has a vast economic power. Asia's economy, if we factor in the influence of the Asian Tigers, is rumbling and in the foreseeable future, American economic power might not be decisive again. No doubt, Russia, although a rump of the former Soviet Union, is still an enormous military power and has in fact been behaving badly of late in its annexation of Crimea and elsewhere in Britain and Ukraine but the military picture is not the same as the one that drove it into the arms of the US.. Soviet satellites such as Bulgaria, Poland e.t.c. are now fully independent states with their own credible armies. The same for countries that used to be part and parcel of the Soviet Union itself. Sovereign states such as Ukraine, Georgia, Armenia, Belarus, Uzbekistan and so on. Russia  will have to roll its tanks through these obstacles to get to western Europe.
Hence in this peace, as in that war, Germany can always forge some partnership with Russia, if not an alliance. For now, Merkel has little to fear from Russia, besides Putin will not be there for ever. Increasing partnership with Russia and China means decreasing alliance, read reliance, with the US. If it gives a new world order, it will also secure Germany's vital gas supplies from Russia. A new non-aggression pact makes sense.

May, Macron, Merkel: The Three Mumsketeers.

Captains with salt and ice in their muskets. Unarguably the three biggest losers in the just annulled Iran deal, allies left high and frying in the high desert, thumbs stuck deep in their asses. There is all the grand talk of keeping the Iran deal alive but even the most optimistic know that it is as dead as the dodo: without the US, it is difficult to see how it could even be kept on life support. In diplomatic rhetoric, American leaders used to refer to Britain, France and Germany as allies, speeches that often sounded patronizing, condescending at times, but even these thin icings of sugar have been brutally peremptorily dispensed with by President Trump in cancelling the deal. No single hint of consultation, no acknowledgement of the tough, enervating and complex negotiations these governments had to carry out in order to bring the deal to the table. No consideration of their interests. It was as if they were not there in the first instance. Macron even had to travel to America to indulge in some charm offensive that was nothing short of being comical. Trust Trump not to indulge in some sweet horseshit, pandering to some shitty allies. The damage has been massive but of more poignant disaster is the harm the whole fiasco has done to their reputation. Nobody will ever trust them to be agents of the United States again. If any country does, then a paradise exists on earth. A fool's paradise.
Grumblings in Europe have been very loud. Bruno Le Marie, France Economy Minister has talked about defending his country's 'economic sovereignty', bristling heatedly about France behaving as a vassal to the United States. But the chaffing reality is that his country is not only a vassal, politically, economically and militarily, it also has little power to compel its own big companies not to shiver whenever the US sneezes. The energy giant Total is pulling out of multi-billion deals it has signed with Iran and many companies in France and elsewhere in Europe are following suit.. For Daimler-Benz, as an example, the stark choice is between selling Mercedes cars in Iran and selling them in America. It is a terrible mismatch. Such is the level to which these countries have sunk from being great European powers to great vassals of the United States.
And to set fire to the shredded regalia, the man putting them through such torrid trials is a guy who cannot tell the difference between HIV and HPV. The job of the president of the United States might be the most powerful and glamorous one on earth but it is in no way the toughest or most cerebral. He needs to work as a team, surrounded by thousands of aides and advisers and he has the money, clout, connections and power to hire the best.. He could bring in the infernally brilliant James Rubins of this world with just a snap of his fingers. Nobody is expecting Aristotle to occupy the seat but then a president of the most powerful, most technically-savvy country on earth should be able to know the difference between the Human Papillomavirus and Human Immunodeficiency Virus, HPV and HIV. Every schoolboy knows it and it is a pity Bill Gates had to tell us at an event that he had to explain the difference to the president. Twice. As early as 1980, long before the advent of HIV and AIDS, Time was doing a lot of articles on herpes and papilloma viruses. If such a common knowledge, such simple understanding, can elude our president, it becomes difficult envisaging how he would comprehend and grasp the nuances, the fine details of the hideously complex Iran deal. It is dead easy to suspect the deal was impetuously cancelled on the shallow fancy of a man that heads a country Europe has accustomed itself to in not-all-that graceful followership.  Too bad, too sad. May, Macron and Merkel will not only have to extricate their countries from this pathetic embrace, they will also have to extricate their economies, big businesses and to some extents their cultures. The missteps of the tango are becoming badly glaring.

This Ghost Won't Go Away.

Yesterday, Brazil defeated Germany 1-0 in a friendly played in Berlin, Gabriel Jesus of Manchester City scoring the only goal of the encounter. Before the match, the Brazilian coach, Tite said the encounter would have a lot of psychological significance. A victory for Brazil would go some way in pushing back the ghost of the humiliating 7-1 defeat suffered by Brazil at the hands of Germany in the semifinals of the 2014 World Cup in Belo Horizonte. Right on Brazilian soil. It was terrible, and that is putting it mildly. Tite himself said that his wife started crying the moment the 5th goal went in. It was a collective national impulse. Even many people all over the world, one way or the other supporters of Brazilian football, could not resist joining the crying fray. There was the eerie felling a horrible destruction was going on on the field. Something great enduring was being torn to shreds.
But in truth, the real damage had been done after the 4th goal. It was the last straw that broke whatever the camel had left of its back. At 3-0 down, there was the poor hope, very poor hope, that stirring miracles had happened before in football from such hopeless situations. The fifth goal ruthlessly dispelled such faint stirrings. The agony was just unbearable for many. Some had desribed it as Brazil's darkest hour and it is very difficult disagreeing with that conclusion. It had been very few in the history of nations that a 29-minute capitulation threw a huge mass of the populace into a dark, wailing abyss which they could not climb out from for a very long time.
Hence the victory in the friendly match in Berlin that incidentally ended Germany' 23- match unbeaten run couldn't have come sweeter. It didn't matter that Mesut Ozil, one of the prime architects of what became known as the Horizonte Massacre, did not play. Any revenge in this regard would do.
But nothing is ever going to erase the memories of that notorious ghost. Like Hamlet father's ghost, it will always keep on coming back, no matter the revenge gained. Nothing will ever replace it. Some human and natural events are so unique, so peculiar, so stirring and striking that they cannot be repeated. Even if Brazil and Germany meet again in the next World Cup and there is a reversal of the 7-1 scoreline, the occurence might not elicit substantially more than a sense of deja vu. With a shrug. We've all seen that before, hadn't we? Brazil won the football gold at the Olympics, by defeating the same Germany but it will be the most amenable that will suggest they gained satisfaction from it over the 7-1 thrashing. France was to later emerge victorious, sort of, in the 2nd World War and even was to later occupy parts of Berlin but there was simply no erasing the pain and agony of Hilterite armies racing through France in the early stages of the war.
Few incidents in history can be compared to that defeat but not far from the mind is George Foreman's reverse against Muhammad Ali in the Rumble in the Jungle boxing contest in Zaire in 1974. Foreman was to become a very successful businessman and even later in life became the oldest heavyweight boxing champion in history by sensationally knocking out Michael Moorer but nothing would ever erase that defeat to Ali. Such events have such a powerful force of their own, such electricity, such magnetism that nothing will ever neutralize them. They insist on etching their memories alongside the stars in the sky.

Putin isn't Strongman of the World.

Russia is a superpower, a country that has enormous human and technical resources to prove simply it wasn't behind the notorious poisoning of ex-Russian double agent, Sergei Skripal in Salisbury, England. It has chosen not to, relying rather on verbal denials that nobody was going to believe. If Putin was going to wash his hands off the whole mess, he was going to need more than water, and he hasn't even held up a drop. Now even his most ardent supporters will need some convincing the Russian state wasn't behind this insanely stupid attempted murder.
And now, rightly so, Russia is being censured all over the world. Even President Trump has now joined the bandwagon of Russian bashing. Sixty Russian diplomats based in Washington and at the UN in New York have been expelled by the US and Putin should consider this remarkable, knowing he could always count on Trump as a faint ally, very few of which he has on earth. Indeed, Trump had chosen to tread a cautious line over the whole matter, refusing to blame Russia until more evidence had been provided. A lot of people felt the same way all over the earth, rationalizing that Putin and Russian intelligence were too smart to have embarked on such a stupid adventure. The Novichok group of nerve agents used in the attack could be so easily traced to Russia. This medium has even suggested a rogue scientist could have sold the formula to a rogue state or organization with an axe to grind against Russia. Putin and Russia itself has not done anything to encourage such skeptics and for Trump to have moved the way he did, it seems some materials very damaging to the image of the great nation of Russia is circulating somewhere in the labyrinths of international diplomacy.
The response is the same in Russia's backyard, Europe. Germany, France and Ukraine have also expelled Russian diplomats and countries like Latvia and Poland have summoned Russian ambassadors to their foreign ministries. According to them, in solidarity with British friends. A very natural thing to do. If such a brazen murder attempt could be carried out far away in Britain, only God knows what infernal plots could be incubated and hatched in these East European countries so close to Russia. But then there is something faintly grand about that line about solidarity. Ukraine has suffered enormously at the hands of Russia, what with the annexation of Crimea and the switching on and off of gas pipelines from Russia at will by GAZPROM. This is certainly an opportunity to kick some ass in return by Petro Poroshenko. It is a kick at a bully that the Ukrainian president should deservedly relish and which Putin and his Russia deserve for now. He might be liked by his subjects in Russia but Putin is not strongman of the whole world.

Between Hitler and Merkel: Women Reign over Peace and Grace.

Today is the International Women's Day.
If you believe in providence, then the obvious place to be or refer to in order to underline your faith is Germany. Hitler envisaged a supreme Germany, a nation that would be master over any other nation on earth, a state before which every other state must tremble, and then set to actualize his vision by building a mammoth army, manufacturing state-of-the art weapons and then underlining his resolve with a frightening philosophy in which racism was the chief creed. Aryans were the superheroes and every other race was subhuman. He did not mince words. He was going to exterminate all Jews on earth. He held nothing back too in launching a devastating war in which millions perished and whole cities were flattened in his quest to achieve greatness for Germany. A political continuum, the Third Reich, which he heralded, was supposed to rule for a thousand years. Germany was not going to be master of Europe, but master of the universe. It took approximately five years for his empire and dreams to unravel. His grandiose, male-dominated world in which women were barely allowed even a whimper.
Fast forward to 2018 and Germany is at least master of Western Europe, a key voice in international affairs and an economic superpower. Greatness achieved through hard-work, economic ingenuity, tolerance of differences and healthy respect for the rights of others. A healthy superiority achieved without firing a single shot and vividly contributed to by the same Jews Adolf Hitler did all he could to remove from the surface of the earth.
And it is all so apt that a woman should now preside over this greatness. Angela Merkel reigns in Berlin and her ascendancy, and Germany's own, is pure testimony to the fact that the most resilient rise of nations are the ones achieved not by war and conquest but by healthy desire and determination. And God places women on thrones so uplifted to show all of us the wonderful grace and charm and peace these superb creatures possess.
But if you don't believe in providence, then come down to Ikole-Ekiti, in the state of Ekiti, south-western Nigeria, to isinmole, a traditional festival that usually holds in August. For two or three days during this cultural fest, women are usually barred from the streets. A phenomena of interest to the sociologist, no doubt,  but of very shocking impression to the visitor. No matter how many times he has witnessed it. A frightening air of desertion, desolateness, sweeps the streets and the immediate impression is that not a half of humanity is missing, but three-quarters of it. Humans have two legs and a woman is the third leg of the tripod on which our world stands. Without them, folks, we are toast.
It might seem  a bit condescending, setting out a special day for women, a sop to our chauvinistic societies, but so do we set out a special day to celebrate Christ. After God, these amazing creatures are next.
Happy women's day to everyone.   

This Fire Won't Cease in Syria.

It would have been laughable, the latest ceasefire moves by the UN in Syria if the situation in that country, especially in Eastern Ghouta, has not been so pathetic. On Saturday, the Security Council managed to secure a ceasefire resolution, barely an hour after Russia had strongly objected to the list of groups exempted from the ceasefire. Russia knew anyway that securing a resolution was the only possible part of the whole rigmarole, complying with the ceasefire was well nigh impossible. Of course, by Sunday, barely a day after, Sweden and Kuwait, the originators of the Saturday document, were appealing for a new truce, the Russian Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov, having said the ceasefire would only come into effect until the details were worked out. By Monday, Angela Merkel, the German Chancellor and Emmanuel Macron, the French president were virtually on their knees begging Vladimir Putin to do something. You would hardly see a more heartbreaking sight in international diplomacy. Russia seems to have scored very big in Syria and that only by brushing squeamishness and pity and humane pretensions aside and realizing the conflict was in effect, a fight to death, a war in which no quarter would be asked or given. The US has long abandoned her dreams or lack of them, in the country, its influence having been reduced to a sliver of territory being controlled by Kurds in Eastern Syria, and even Turkey is making her uncomfortable there.
The whole gobbledygook of the ceasefire was likely to flummox you and me. So if you are excluding big, hardline, Islamist groups like Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, HTS, formely Al-Nusra Front or Jaysh al-Islam or Faylaq al-Rahman from the deal, whom are you expecting to observe the truce? These are the most ferocious and active groups in Eastern Ghouta and their contributions to the conflict has been the most intense. Even if the government forces and their allies were going to stop fighting, the rivalry and fight for turf among these rebel groups were going to make aid convoys reaching those in need a very huge task indeed. It is a bitter truth Russia is very  conversant with and is ready to exploit happily for its burgeoning influence in the Middle East: It is a reality the UN is so distant from and which it has mishandled with pitiable comedy.
Tuesday morning, the UN had abjectly reduced its hopes and pretensions from thirty days of ceasefire to just five hours. Again, Putin was sitting high on his throne, calling the shots. A semblance of peace managed to reign for two hours and then the shelling and airstrikes resumed pell-mell. The two hours in itself was a miracle in Syria, though no succor got to those besieged. Folks in the ultimately senseless revolution have long given up on the miracles the UN is still hopelessly trying to conjure.
The besieged in Hom only got relieved when the rebels could no longer continue with the fighting and had to shipped out. The same with Aleppo. It is a bit difficult saying this but the mot plausible hope for the starving and desperate in Eastern Ghouta lies in the blasphemy of the fight being allowed to continue for some time in the hope that the government forces will ultimately gain the upper hand. That is the solution is military. This in itself is little hope. Check out the geography. Benign territory for rebels to withdraw to from where they are presently entrenched lies far, very far away and the only reasonable scenario is a fight to death. Ceasefire is out of the question and the conflict is going to be drawn out, as is expected of resistance from people happily fighting to die.
And for the 400,000 trapped in Eastern Ghouta, too bad they are caught up in a war not of their own making. Too many proxy wars being fought by so many powers. They don't have many choices now, except miracles they themselves don't believe in. And which the UN is only believing in because of the fear of being seen to be doing nothing.