Signing another non-aggression pact.

History repeats itself and in no department of it is this more pronounced than political history. Over time, we had a succession of political monsters that were almost perfect clones of one another: Genghis Khan, Attila the Hun, Adolf Hitler...or political processes that are, in crucial respects, replicas in actualities or reverse. On 23rd August, 1939, with the 2nd Word War imminent in Europe, the Soviet dictator, Josef Stalin, was compelled to sign a non-aggression pact with another dictator, the rampaging German Nazi monster, Adolf Hitler.  Both sides pledged to refrain from attacking each other, sought cooperation in neutralizing common enemies and so on. But the so-called Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact, named after the two countries' foreign ministers was actually no more than mere paper, a document Hitler would tear to shreds barely two years later by invading Soviet positions in eastern Poland.
Fast forward to 2018, almost 79 years later, and one could see another non-aggression pact taking shape again between the two countries. In the reverse. A lot have changed, certainly. The Soviet Union now exists as a rump called Russia and communism that used to be the foundation of the state is now gone. Dictatorship now exists in other forms, propped up by an imperfect democracy but a democracy nevertheless. Germany had lost East Prussia, a third of its territory, is now a pure democracy, if any such thing exists, and now has a woman calling the shots in Berlin. The country is now an economic power but it now relies practically on the United States of America to protect her. Of recent, the German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, has been setting her sights on the East, on erstwhile bitter foe, Russia, strangely on a country the US has sworn to protect her from. It is just like extricating oneself from a very gentle handshake and then delving into the suffocating embrace of a bear hug. Strange, yet it is a reassessment that is very inevitable. The so-called handshake across the Atlantic has been gradually turning into a fist lock. Physically, President Trump's hands might be small but the grip they enforce could be really humiliating. And in no way is this demonstrated more than the recent peremptory cancellation of the Iran deal, an agreement Merkel and the European powers of Britain and France helped put on the table at great pains. Talk about making allies look small, ineffectual and pathetic! These three countries have had their diplomatic reputation torn to shreds and the outrage from their own nationals and economic concerns have been loud, reverberating. Merkel, a professor of physics, must have been miffed even further that the chap  making them look so inconsequential is one who could not really tell the difference between HIV and HPV, two classes of organisms so dissimilar. And so appalling was the remission that Bill Gates, the Microsoft founder, had to explain it to him twice, according to the billionaire's testimony. There are very audible grumblings in Europe by folks there that they cannot continue to be treated like vassals and Merkel must have been listening to the discontent of her own subjects.
Merkel knows that her Achilles' heels, and that of Europe, is ironically, an economic power that is hugely entwined with that of the United States. Even long before these European leaders had started trying to voice some determination, restating their resolve to shore up the Iran deal, many of their companies and big businesses such as the French energy giant, Total, were already pulling out of Iran. Deweaning Europe of the alliance with the US is going to be tough,  very tough, long and laborious but as a scientist, Merkel very much knows it is never too late taking a first step, no matter how small it is. She knows too that the Transatlantic Alliance is one that needs reappraisal. The world is not what it used to be. There is a new military power in the shape of China which also has a vast economic power. Asia's economy, if we factor in the influence of the Asian Tigers, is rumbling and in the foreseeable future, American economic power might not be decisive again. No doubt, Russia, although a rump of the former Soviet Union, is still an enormous military power and has in fact been behaving badly of late in its annexation of Crimea and elsewhere in Britain and Ukraine but the military picture is not the same as the one that drove it into the arms of the US.. Soviet satellites such as Bulgaria, Poland e.t.c. are now fully independent states with their own credible armies. The same for countries that used to be part and parcel of the Soviet Union itself. Sovereign states such as Ukraine, Georgia, Armenia, Belarus, Uzbekistan and so on. Russia  will have to roll its tanks through these obstacles to get to western Europe.
Hence in this peace, as in that war, Germany can always forge some partnership with Russia, if not an alliance. For now, Merkel has little to fear from Russia, besides Putin will not be there for ever. Increasing partnership with Russia and China means decreasing alliance, read reliance, with the US. If it gives a new world order, it will also secure Germany's vital gas supplies from Russia. A new non-aggression pact makes sense.

May, Macron, Merkel: The Three Mumsketeers.

Captains with salt and ice in their muskets. Unarguably the three biggest losers in the just annulled Iran deal, allies left high and frying in the high desert, thumbs stuck deep in their asses. There is all the grand talk of keeping the Iran deal alive but even the most optimistic know that it is as dead as the dodo: without the US, it is difficult to see how it could even be kept on life support. In diplomatic rhetoric, American leaders used to refer to Britain, France and Germany as allies, speeches that often sounded patronizing, condescending at times, but even these thin icings of sugar have been brutally peremptorily dispensed with by President Trump in cancelling the deal. No single hint of consultation, no acknowledgement of the tough, enervating and complex negotiations these governments had to carry out in order to bring the deal to the table. No consideration of their interests. It was as if they were not there in the first instance. Macron even had to travel to America to indulge in some charm offensive that was nothing short of being comical. Trust Trump not to indulge in some sweet horseshit, pandering to some shitty allies. The damage has been massive but of more poignant disaster is the harm the whole fiasco has done to their reputation. Nobody will ever trust them to be agents of the United States again. If any country does, then a paradise exists on earth. A fool's paradise.
Grumblings in Europe have been very loud. Bruno Le Marie, France Economy Minister has talked about defending his country's 'economic sovereignty', bristling heatedly about France behaving as a vassal to the United States. But the chaffing reality is that his country is not only a vassal, politically, economically and militarily, it also has little power to compel its own big companies not to shiver whenever the US sneezes. The energy giant Total is pulling out of multi-billion deals it has signed with Iran and many companies in France and elsewhere in Europe are following suit.. For Daimler-Benz, as an example, the stark choice is between selling Mercedes cars in Iran and selling them in America. It is a terrible mismatch. Such is the level to which these countries have sunk from being great European powers to great vassals of the United States.
And to set fire to the shredded regalia, the man putting them through such torrid trials is a guy who cannot tell the difference between HIV and HPV. The job of the president of the United States might be the most powerful and glamorous one on earth but it is in no way the toughest or most cerebral. He needs to work as a team, surrounded by thousands of aides and advisers and he has the money, clout, connections and power to hire the best.. He could bring in the infernally brilliant James Rubins of this world with just a snap of his fingers. Nobody is expecting Aristotle to occupy the seat but then a president of the most powerful, most technically-savvy country on earth should be able to know the difference between the Human Papillomavirus and Human Immunodeficiency Virus, HPV and HIV. Every schoolboy knows it and it is a pity Bill Gates had to tell us at an event that he had to explain the difference to the president. Twice. As early as 1980, long before the advent of HIV and AIDS, Time was doing a lot of articles on herpes and papilloma viruses. If such a common knowledge, such simple understanding, can elude our president, it becomes difficult envisaging how he would comprehend and grasp the nuances, the fine details of the hideously complex Iran deal. It is dead easy to suspect the deal was impetuously cancelled on the shallow fancy of a man that heads a country Europe has accustomed itself to in not-all-that graceful followership.  Too bad, too sad. May, Macron and Merkel will not only have to extricate their countries from this pathetic embrace, they will also have to extricate their economies, big businesses and to some extents their cultures. The missteps of the tango are becoming badly glaring.