Monday, April 16, 2018

The US, George Orwell And The New Cold War.

In light of recent events, the rhythms of the Transatlantic cooperation, or Western solidarity, now that the cold war is fully back, have been sounding eerily Orwellian. It must be right if the US says it is right. A faux pas that is a bit worn, a cliche that doesn't even hold water in present day animal kingdoms. The US is not always right, as Tony Blair found out after his tactless haste to deploy British troops to oust Saddam Hussein, an American misadventure based on the fake intelligence that Iraq was brimming with weapons of mass destruction. It is instructive that the architect of that hoax was John Bolton, the then US envoy to the UN under President George Bush and now Secretary of State under President Trump. Not a single phial of chemical weapons was found in Iraq and the whole fiasco should have served as a restraint to Theresa May, an otherwise sensible girl. The presence of John Bolton alone should have sent the alarm bells ringing and with Trump at the helm of affairs, the horror of two reckless Napoleons, crude hardliners, veritable loose canons, should have reinforced caution. Russia is not the same as Iraq and incidents that could trigger skirmishes with a nuclear power need to be handled with utmost restraint. There is simply no guarantee that a missile will not go astray and land in a very wrong place. The Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons is already in place in Syria and acceptable caution dictates that concerned paties should have waited for its findings. A report of culpability would have secured a reasonable mandate from the UN and then the missile strikes would have had a greater impact than the silly show of fireworks many people are now claiming it to be. With his tweets and loose tongue, Trump was always going to err on the side of impulse and Jeremy Corbyne was right in asking huge questions about British involvement in the strikes. Britain is a power on its own and doesn't have to be corralled into doing whatever the US does
 No power is as effective as one that is cautious, reasonable and based on facts. Corbyne has a point and he would have a huge ammunition indeed if it turns out that the OPCW team finds out that that the allegations of the use of chemical weapons in Douma might have been more complex than thought. The UN was established to handle situations like this and its chief was right to remind the allies of their obligations to the UN charter. The Syrian civil war is indeed a very, very complex conflict and truths emanating from such spheres need to be handled carefully, intractabilities Trump was inclined to simplify. Simplicities made worse by preemptive accusations of Russia tampering with the attack site
 The OPCW is a well-resourced technical organization and it should not be difficult for it to ascertain a chemical weapon was used in a place, even a year ago. The next few days should be revealing indeed.

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