Sunday, April 15, 2018

Trump Promised Fireworks: He Hasn't Even Struck A Match.

The President was always going to err on the side of impulse. His tongue and tweets were too quick for caution. As the news of the alleged chemical attacks in by Syrian government forces in Douma, Eastern Ghoutta, broke out, Trump raced out of the blocks instantly, promising retaliation in form of big, bright bombs that were coming in numbers. Of course the flow of adrenalin had ebbed a couple of days later and subsequent tweets on the issue weren't as enthusiastic. Trump should have then proceeded with his tour of Latin America, that itinerary would have certainly yielded more returns than throwing 105 missiles into facilities no one, except Syrian regime officials, can really say with certainty still contain a single phial of chlorine or other chemical agents. If you're going to attack a place, why announce it so loudly? Why shout your intentions from the rooftops? The Russians and Syrians are no fools. The facilities attacked would certainly contain underground passages with designed exigencies to ferry materials through them very quickly. As it is, a president in the habit of shooting off the cuff must have given them sufficient time and warning to do so. It gave the Russians sufficient time to move their big warships out of their base in the Syrian port of Tartaus and there is nothing to suggest evacuation of smaller chemical containers will pose greater difficulty. Hence this brings us back in time, to President Clinton lobbing criise missiles into terrorist training camps in Eastern Afghanistan. As it turned out to be, the camps were empty and the outcome was that al-Qaeda got bin Laden got emboldened and encouraged to the extent of launching the devastating 9/11 attacks on the US. The missiles launched by Allies into Syria are more likely, as Assad had threatened, to emboldened the Russians and Iranians and Syrians into launching attacks on Idlib, the last major rebel-held enclave in Syria. The place had been a dumping ground for defeated rebels in the country and if it should fall, as it certainly will, then we may as well witness the dumping of defeated enemies into the sea. If the rebels are going to fight to death, having nowhere else to run, will their wives and children show the same determination?
The pyrotechnics weren't even spectacular. Israel does a better job of it with far fewer missiles. Better, quieter and more constant jobs. More efficient jobs. Of course the Russians are making huge propaganda capital out of the announcement that 65 of the missiles were shot down by Syrian air defences that were based on batteries manufactured in the old Soviet Union, 30 years ago. This has been corroborated by the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, an organization that has been fairly accurate in its reporting and even if can still take this with a pinch of salt, the attacks are not the perfect strikes Trump claims they are. The body language of Gen. McKenzie says it all during his Pentagon briefing. It was apparent he wasn't comfortable with his assurances the missiles achieved all their goals. The whole attack is turning into the most expensive pyrotechnics ever organized. Sadly, we see even a better spectacle at the Sydney harbour, during New Year celebrations.

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